Regional and extra regional players

Regional and extra shareal playersCHAPTER IVTHE regional AND THE EXTRA REGIONAL PLAYERS AND THEIR ROLESBe spatial dealing a common religion, Islam, alien invaders- from Alexander the non bad(p) to British in the 19th century and the Soviets in the 20th century stupefy united the afghans.-Insight Magazine, 09 April 1990.Brief History afghanistan was the only country in the instauration to launch a strong protest in coup guide Nations against the proof of Pakistan in 1947 and besides to lodge a limit dispute with Pakistan when it claimed that Durand annotation is no more a binding contract as at present there is no British Raj present in the region1. It in like manner incited a major(ip) incursion in Bajur Agency, NWFP in 1961 with hope to keep back it annexed with itself and conduct and so Prime Minister Dauod Khan to resign from his post, it plunged Afghaniiistan into a prospicientsighted spiral fall from which it has yet to rec over2. Top of take a shitBotto m of FormAfghanistan soon proved to be a tough neighbour and sided with India on every matter which could hurt Pakistani vexs using an India-Soviet chooseing group. In declination 1979 Russia invaded the Afghanistan with the pre-text of endorseing the pro-Soviet Government. The USA weary of mobiliseing Communism, Saudi Arabia indebted to the the Statesn cause couplight-emitting diode with sense of Muslim power and Pakistan worried of progressively un shelter and hostile Afghanistan combined together to exploit the Islamists waged a jihad against Soviet Invaders. The Pashtun grievances and warlordism gave way to Taliban (literally symbolizeing students) who rose from Kandhar and took 95% of Afghanistan under break by year 2000. Taliban were the friends of Pakistan and safeguarded the Western effortier of Pakistan against not only Indians that notwithstanding Soviets3.Environmental RealitiesUSA exhaust tried to render peacefulness in Afghanistan, scarce it has become more heterogeneous due to softness of U.S. and NATO forces to actualise the environmental realities peculiar to this region and being alien to the shade and traditions of the people. To suffer peace requires patience and remedy priorities. Before peace is as reckon we need to understand rough hard facts4 -(a) The continuing influx of Afghan youth trained in Pakistans madrassas now comprises the bulk of Taliban and Al Queda cadres. They ar hooked to glorified violence in the name of jihad, and imbued with robotic discipline. They atomic number 18 an ground forces beyond redemption and reasoning.(b) The silent Pashtun majority is terrorized into submission by Taliban and Al Queda.(c) The internecine warf be between the warlords for the past tense decade has created an unbridgeable vocalism between the Pashtuns, the Tajiks, the Uzbeks, the Hazaras and the Persian speaking Shiites of Herat. The past mutual pagan cleansing and betrayals have created visceral hatred among different tribes.(d) The Pashtun dominated Taliban still flummox to the idea of Pashtuns ruling over all Afghanistan which the minorities no lasting countenance. This has led to a growing friction between ethnic groups, specifically the Pashtuns and their Yankee Tajik and Uzbek contemporaries. impertinent RelationsBefore the Soviet invasion, Afghanistan pursued a policy of neutrality and nonalignment in its distant relations. After the descentember 1979 invasion, Afghanistans unlike policy reverberate that of the Soviet Union. The fall of the Taliban in October 2001 opened a fresh chapter in Afghanistans foreign relations. Afghanistan is now an active member of the supranational community, and has diplomatic relations with countries from around the world.IranIran shares a long border with Afghanistan (900kilometres) and has interpretd protect to roughly 1.5 meg Afghans. Afghanistans relations with Iran have fluctuated over the years, with periodic disputes over the pis sing rights of the Helmand River as the main issue of contention5. Initially, due to its war with Iraq, Iran was not actively involved in Afghanistan further later the Shia groups who were bitter due to hardscrabble support from Pakistan became unaired to Iran. Following the Soviet invasion, Iran supported the cause of the Afghan resistance. Iran shares a cultural, linguistic affinity with northern Afghanistans non-Pashtun elements, which missed the nearly under Taliban rule. capital of Iran resents the atrocities regularly visited upon the Shiah Hazara minority by Sunni fanatics in Afghanistan. Its relations with Afghanistan have amend since the fall of the Taliban and has been active in Afghan reconstruction efforts, particularly in the occidental portion of the country6. Presently, Iran has adopted a more aloof simulate and appears to be avoiding overt commitments or ohmic resistance to any mavin Afghan faction.Iranian policy makers have long sought to prevent an a dhesion between Pakistan and a Sunni-dominated Afghanistan, which would destabilise its entire eastern border. Besides Irans contention with Pakistan for access to the CARs, Irans Afghanistan policy is largely motivated by sectarian ties to Afghanistans Shia minority.A territorial collapse of Pakistan, or domestic instability that threatened to go past in Afghanistan has always tended to be contrary to Irans interests. It has always been perceived that the flag-waving(a) developments of Pashtunistan could spill over to neighbouring Iran, destabilizing its Baluch population, thereby activating the anti-Iran elements in the form of the institution of a Greater Balochistan. Thus, Iran is against both formation of a Pashtunistan deep down the Afghan confederation as it would occur greater dominance to Sunni Pashtuns and further shed the conditions of Shias, and overly of an independent Pashtunistan which would result in similar demands of independent field of battles within Ir an by other sub nationalistic communities. Prolongation of Afghan instability restricts Pakistans capability to export its light industrial goods in exchange Asia and the Caucasus, where organisation subsidised cheap Iranian consumer exports have proliferated. A peaceful Afghanistan would also offer an unwelcome alternative for carrying Caspian basin oil and gas across Afghanistan to South Asia. Iran may also be concerned that an Afghan block could provide a larger opening for American and Turkish frugal and managemental bring in the region7.CARThe main concern of the trinity CARs (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan) bordering Afghanistan was the spill over of militants into their territories. Uzbekistan and Turkey had contacts with General Dostum who had argued that a confederation of free articulates is the only solution for the chaos in Afghanistan. He warned that the Uzbeks will never again live under Pashtun domination and demanded a separate state, which would be a secular entity and act as a buffer for Central Asia against the spread of Moslem primaevalism from the Pashtun-dominated battlefield in the south8. Afghanistans relations with Tajikistan have been complicated by political upheaval and civil war in Tajikistan, which spurred some 100,000 Tajiks to seek refuge in Afghanistan in late 1992 and early 1993. also disenchanted by the Talibans harsh treatment of Afghanistans Tajik minority, Tajikistan facilitated assistance to the no.thern hamper. The Karzai judicature activity has sought to establish rigorousr ties with its northern neighbours in order to trespass on the potential stinting benefits of increased trade.CHINADuring the 1970s, the Soviet influence in Kabul, and later their invasion ofAfghanistan, has been perceived by Beijing as the purposeful encircling of mainland China by the Soviet Union. Thus, support to Pakistans western border security has been a major feature of Beijings policy. China also has keen interests in Central Asias energy resources and, thus, supports a moderate government at Kabul, because it is believed to be least likely to foment any frame of extremism and disturbance in neighbouring countries. Chinas strategic concerns in the area are mirrored by the security of its lines of communication, which tends to counter Afghanistans rhetoric on Pashtunistan. The ethnic- spiritual civil wars in Afghanistan have caused rise of Islamic fundamentalism. Just as America has a vision of a modestly stable Afghanistan that will no longer be a haven for extremists, China has a vision of Afghanistan as a secure conduit for roads and energy pipelines that will bring born(p) resources from the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. So if America defeats Al Qaeda and the discrepant elements of the Taliban, Chinas geopolitical position will be enhanced9. This is not a paradox, since China and America have convergence of interests with difference being that whole concern of Americas military and diplo matic effort is toward an exit strategy, whereas the Chinese hope to squelch and profit.Saudi ArabiaIn late seventies, Saudis were facing severe criticism for their close alliance with USA from Arab governments. Saudis used the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a springboard to portray their commitment to Muslim causes and brush up their Islamic credentials. In early eighties in close cooperation with America, Saudi Arabia provided a large amount of financial aid for military and humanitarian purposes for Afghanistan. Pakistan had close working relations with all Sunni groups, and never tried to bring Shia groups into the federation to avoid friction with Saudis. After the cut off of U.S. notes, Saudis became the largest provider of funds for Afghan adventure. The direct role of Saudi Arabia also dramatically increased. Later, in particular post 9/11, the warm relations between Taliban and Saudis hit the derriere when Taliban refused to cooperate on Osama bin Ladin issue. Saudi s had funded the most conservative individuals and organizations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ironically, most of them moody against the Saudi royal family and had openly criticized the royal family for its close kind with USA.RussiaRussia though major player until 1991 had markedly reduced influence since its breakup into many independent states. It has given limited military help to the Taliban opposition and deployed troops in Tajikistan near the border of Afghanistan. It is suspicious of increasing US influence in the area traditionally seen by them as their area of influence but not in a position to take exception the USA. Since the fall of the Taliban, the Karzai government has improved relations with Russia, but Afghanistans outstanding foreign debt to Russia still continues to be a source of contention.While the campaign against world(prenominal)istic terrorism is a key area in which U.S. and Russian interests converge, capital of the Russian Federation is also wary of growing U.S. influence in especially the oil-rich Caspian ocean basin. Russia is providing military hardware to Afghanistan and is aware of the fact that fragile reputation of fundamental authority in Afghanistan, torn by chronic in competitiveness among rival ethnic factions, requires U.S. presence as its disengagement would likely spur renewed controversy for influence. Russia has became more interested in confining Pashtun dominated Islam to the south and creating a Tadjik and Uzbek entity as a buffer area for the Central Asian states, which also suits Russias near abroad policy.PakistanPakistan shares a border of some 2,400 kilometres with Afghanistan and has 10 million Pashtun citizens of its own. The main aim of Pakistans Afghan policy was to have a cordial government in Afghanistan to secure its Western border. Pakistans policy since its inception has been focussed on maintaining a situation that could help it avoid controversy over the Durand Line. It has been trying to force a fusion of communities along own side and inciting separation of those on the other side of the line. Islamabad sought to scratch line Afghan territorial claims by supporting Afghan Islamic parties. Unfortunately, the policies, which it adopted, had exactly the opposite effects. None of the Afghan governments were willing to subordinate its actions to Pakistans wishes. Many Afghans say Pakistan has exacerbated the ethnic component of their conflict by supporting Pashtun Islamic rule. there was a domestic political incentive as healthful, linked to Islamabads fears about irredentism. Pakistan saw in the Taliban, and other fundamentalistics, the opportunity to undermine support for Pashtun patriotism10.Pakistan was the first country to recognise Taliban rule in Afghanistan and initiated efforts to persuade the Taliban to play a broad-based government in Kabul in which all major ethnic tribes would share power. September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the USA changed everyt hing and presented Pakistan with a stripped choice both make common cause with cap in its war against bin Ladens al-Qaeda ne twork based in Taliban-controlled neighbouring Afghanistan, or persist with its pro-Taliban Afghan policy and as a consequence suffer global condemnation of guilt by association. On September 13, 2001 then President General Pervez Musharraf announced that Pakistan would lend its unstinted cooperation to the international confederation against terror11. General Pervez Musharraf address to the nation on 19 September is attach as appendix B.More recently, Pakistan has been alarmed by Indias growing political, military, and economic ties to Afghanistan, and sees its establishment of consulates in the Pashtun-majority cities of Jalalabad and Kandahar as provocative. Many Afghans feel Islamabads insistence on Pashtun representation in the post-Taliban political order as the crying of crocodile tears, reflective of an inability to give up strategic designs on Afghanistan12. Infact it is widely believed When push comes to shove, Pakistan is unlikely to hold back, and will use its long border and deep ethnic links with Pashtuns to alter the balance in its favour, says a senior Pashtun leader in the present Hamid Karzis government13.Even though there are more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan and Pakistani Pakhtuns are better educated and more affluent, Pakistan has always been nervous about its Pashtun population. Does that mean Pakistan and Afghanistan will forever remain condemned to instability and seek security by dependence on outside forces? This may not be true, but to bring stability in the region by uniting the vehement Pashtuns divided by the Durand line may be a possible option. A weak non-Pashtun dominated state in Afghanistan has never present any threat to Pakistan because it has neither had any ideological bearings or religious extra-national ambitions nor any ethnic or sub-nationalist stirrings. On the other hand, whenever there has been a strong Pashtun dominated state in Afghanistan, its government has supported Pashtun separatism (refusal to accept the Durand Line) and pose a threat to the territorial integrity and political solidarity of Pakistan14. Pakistan has no effective control over a large belt of territory along its border with Afghanistan primarily dominated by Pashtuns15. parlous extremist groups that are intent on attacking the U.S. such as al-Qaeda, enjoy safe haven in these border areas. join Stateshad we looked deeper, we capacity have found that the root causes behind the enduring and resilient nature of the Taliban have very little to do with religion, and much to do with an antique ethnic struggle we the United States should consider the prospect of creating a Pashtunistan which reflects the tribal boundaries. This would be a new state, carved from parts of both Afghanistan and Pakistan This new area would be composed largely of ethnic Pashtuns, similar to what we hav e created in Kurdistan or Bosnia, and it would therefore very likely have the consent of the population on the ground16-Major Michael D. HolmesFollowing the Soviet invasion, the United States supported diplomatic efforts to achieve a Soviet withdrawal and contributed to the refugee chopine in Pakistan to assist Afghans. After the Soviet withdrawal, CIA let Pak ISI deal with the pitiable mess of Afghanistan. The USA initially gave a free hand to Pak to sort up the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The US necessityed the Taliban to develop as a counterweight to the Iranian regime and to check USSRs influence in the region. A favourable govt in Kabul would help USA in numerous ways. With the emergence of CARs as independent countries in 1991 and the prospects of availability of extensive oil and gas reserves again brought that area to international focus. Meanwhile, the Taliban on capturing Kabul, imposed a strict Islamic code and practiced fundamentalist policies. This led to the US A gradually distancing itself from the Taliban. Post September 11, 2001 events of cosmic proportions have resulted in world focusing on Afghanistan with a renewed interest to deal with Osama bin Laden, who was responsible for the acts of terror originating from Afghanistan.The Osama Bin Laden Factor. Osama Bin Laden was once one of the star recruiters of the US intelligence self-assurance the CIA. He enrolled thousands of jihad volunteers from the Middle East for a jihad against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Ironically after winning their jihad against the USSR, these fundamentalists turned their attention onto the other superpower. Post 9/11 led to U.S. GWOT as the Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden to the USA.Pashtun Factor. U.S. policymakers recognised early on that Pashtun support was needed to create a broader-based moment to replace the Taliban and provide a degree of stability in the region17. This approach appears to have long term goal of stabilising effect as U.S. has demonstrated that America supports the Pashtun desire for a stronger position in relation to the Punjabi-dominated government in Islamabad in the Af-Pak border area of Durand Line. U.S. understands that Pashtuns in FATA treasure their long-standing indecorum and do not like to be ruled by Islamabad. What they want is integration into the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and FATA to form a single unified Pashtun province that enjoys the autonomy envisaged in the inoperative 1973 Pakistan constitution18. Al-Qaeda and its foreign fighters, who are mostly Arab, depend on local support from the Taliban for their sanctuary. conflicting Al-Qaeda, with its global terrorist agenda, most of the Taliban factions focus on local objectives in Afghanistan and FATA they do not pose a direct threat to the USA. On butt on 1, 2007, Pakistani ambassador to Washington the Maj. Gen (retired) Mahmud Ali Durrani, said at a seminar at the Pakistan Embassy, I hope the Taliban and Pashtun patri otism dont merge. If that happens, weve had it, and were on the verge of that.19IndiaAfghanistan remained the focus of Indian regional policy because of its geo-strategic proximity to Pakistan and the Indian foreign policy was touch on maintaining very cordial relations with it. India in 1950 signed friendship Treaty to promote bilateral co-operation with Afghanistan to enhance Indian influence. In 1967, the United Pashtunistan Front (UPF) was formed in New Delhi. The then Indian Foreign Minister Swaran Singh told the Indian Parliament that we are fully aware of the fundamental freedoms and natural aspirations of the brave Pashtuns which have been consistently denied to them, and their struggle has got our greatest kindness and we will certainly support the efforts that Khan Abdul Ghafar Khan might abbreviate in that direction.20 After the Soviet invasion in 1979 India doubled up its efforts to further strengthen its relations with Afghanistan. Over the years Indian political el ite maintained close contacts with Pasthun leaders on both sides of Durand line. The two countries have always shared a healthy relationship but with the Soviet withdrawal and its disintegration in 1991 and Mujahedeens control of Kabul in April 1992 the relations reached its nadir.During Taliban rule more than 30,000 Afghan refugees moved to India. India is helping Afghanistan remodel itself and with an ever-increasing belligerence in all fields, including military, intelligence, humanitarian, and economic21. India is the largest aid provider to Afghanistan and in the approaching few years India likely to project as a regional power is appropriately following a pro-active approach and take the right initiatives on Afghanistan. By fostering greater economic ties with the pro-Indian Northern Alliance dominant Kabul government, New Delhi has dramatically increased its involvement in Afghanistan, and is seeking to marginalize Pakistan22. India would prefer a separate Pashtunistan rath er than a neo-Taliban ruling over Afghanistan, as this would frustrate Pakistani strategy. India has good relations with Tajikistan and would continue to have good relations with the Tajik section of Afghanistan as well as with a newly formed Pashtunistan.The geo-strategic importance of Afghanistan has a great bearing on India and its approach is primarily Pak focused. Indias economic interests in Afghanistan are secondary to its strategic interests. Apart from the desire to restore Pakistans two-front problem, some of the factors that govern Indian approach to Afghanistan are -(a) A pro Pak government in Afghanistan is likely to support Pakistan in case of any future Indo-Pak infringe and would provide them necessary Strategic depth.(b) Pak has been using Taliban militia to wage a proxy war in Kashmir.(c) Afghanistan is the hub of drug trafficking and narco-terrorism23.(d) A peaceful and stable Afghanistan will be in the economic interests of India as it will gussy up the prospec ts of Indo-Afghanistan trade and also provide greater access to the Central Asian markets and important centers for gas and oil.(e) A fundamentalist Afghanistan is likely to encourage the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the region which would affect India.Afghanistan constitutes a new subject field for Indo-Pakistani hostility. Credible U.S. media leaks indicate that Pakistani linkages to the car bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul on July 7, 2008.India, thus needs to convince Pakistan that Islamabad sort of of exporting hatred and destruction, should seek positive parity with India and others in scathe of improving the quality of life of its citizens in an inclusive manner.International emplacementThere is no formal international position on the Durand Line, exactly a de facto one that recognizes it as a real border. No other state has accepted Afghanistans position that it is not such a border. The inquiry arises so why should there be any international force per uni t area on Pakistan and Afghanistan to negotiate about Durand line? The reason is that since September 11, 2001, FATA and the area alongside the Durand line has been viewed as a site of global risk that can be controlled only when Pakistan takes responsibility for its territory and extends the structures of the state into the region through expanding opportunities for economic development and education in the FATA region24. This is quite concentrated because the security situation is currently poor, which makes launching large development projects difficult. Afghanistans refusal to give de jure recognition to the border therefore stands in the way of a countywide development program that would have much more impact than would match developments in each country25.Having driven the Taliban and Al Qaeda from Afghanistan, the United States and its affiliate are particularly keen to end FATAs (and to a lesser outcome Baluchistans) along the Durand Line to serve as center of Islamic radicalism that promotes international terrorism and seeks to destabilize Afghanistan. The presence of U.S., International Security Assistance Force(ISAF)26, and Afghan troops gives the border issue some practical urgency as the insurgents they fight retreat back into Pakistan in the belief that they will not be pursued or attacked across an international boundary27. From the perspective of the international community the discussions limited to recognition of the Durand Line as a de jure international boundary would not bring stability in the region even if they succeeded as no government in Afghanistan would be willing to assume the political price for accepting the border unless such an agreement were part of a broader package designed to make the country more secure. Pakistan also has much to gain as its economy will get a boost28. While Afghanistan is concerned about Pakistans support of the Taliban, in times past it has been Pakistan that has been concerned about Afghanistans tacit support of Pashtun separatists29.Afghan Nationalism. On a functional level, Afghanistan cannot be subjectively examined under the Western conception of either a state or a nation. The country simply does not operate in any sense of either definition at this time. Both a limited security apparatus and stalled international support have done little to cultivate ancient divisions based on ethnic and religious elements30.This relatively low level of Afghan nationalism is a result of internal conflict of last two decades with atrocities pull by all sides on ethnic rivals and forced displacements and makes the task of rekindling the cremate of nationalism more difficult. Political reconstruction is the essential pre-requisite for the economic reconstruction of the country. Afghanistan is at a major crossroad of its level today. The chain of events, which has led to the present situation, was beyond the control of Afghans. But now, it is Afghans who will have to do soul searching and make some difficult choices.Afghanistans neighbours need to understand and digest the fact that the entire region will be the interlocking winner in case Afghanistan and Pakistan are good friends. The old theories of using Afghanistan as a pawn to open a second front against any third country need to be buried. Any state which has any motivation to incite sectarian or ethnic divisions in any of its neighbours is following a zero gain policy as far as the long term interest of the entire region is concerned. This is the age of globalisation and not of any Forward Policies. Afghan history has proved that great issues of the day cannot be settled by fighting but by consultation and consensus31. Many regional and extra regional powers are trying to retain their respective spheres of influence in Afghanistan but no regional power can afford to antagonise Washington by working openly at cross purposes with its military campaign, it has to be supportive to U.S. goals and objectives in the region to meet its aspirations. The international community, including the U.S. government, has long avoided pickings a clear position on the border issue, but its ambivalence is beginning to change32.Ghaus, Abdul Samad,The fall of Afghanistan,Pergamon-Brasseys Intenational Defense Publishers,London1988,p109.Qureshi, S.M.M. Pakhtunistan The Frontier Dispute Between Afghanistan and Pakistan . peace-loving Affairs, Vol. 39, No. 1/2 Spring Summer, 1966, pp. 99-114. .The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan. WTF What the fork? .Puri, Rajinder take Af-Pak June 7, 2009Ghaus,Op.cit.pp148-149.Afghanistan- Conservapedia. .Tomsen, Peter. Geopolitics of an Afghan Settlement. Perceptions, Journal of International Affairs Dec 2000 Feb 2001, Volume 5, get 4. .Hussain, Hamid, Afghanistan not so great games Robert D. Kaplan. Beijings Afghan Gamble. The Center for a New American Security Khattak, Afrasiab. Interview with ICG, Chairman, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), Peshawar, w hitethorn 2002. 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